Use sharp days to build structure that serves you on foggy days. SENTINEL is a repeatable way to see the hidden scaffolding behind messy systems.
This guide provides a series of structured AI prompts to analyze complex systems.
Quick Path ⚡ Pick a system and fence it: one market, product, org, or workflow. Run the 7 probes from the Prompt Kit below. Capture 1–3 bullets each. Synthesize a card: hypothesis, divergence, edge type, trigger, test. Adversarial test it once. Note how the edge collapses if it becomes consensus. Schedule one observation you can verify in the next 7–14 days. Phase 1 — Frame the System (5 min · Easy) Boundary: Name what is in and out (actors, markets, time window). Objective: Write one line: “I want to understand ___ to decide ___.” Phase 2 — Run the Probes (12–20 min · Medium) Go through the 7 “Probe Prompts” in the Prompt Kit below, one by one. Phase 3 — Synthesize the Card (10 min · Medium) Fill out the “SENTINEL Card Template” from the Prompt Kit using the output from the probes. Phase 4 — Observe and Log (8–12 min over 1–2 weeks · Easy) Pick 2–3 observables tied to your trigger. Make them falsifiable. Create a tiny log: date, observation, implication, action/no-action. The Prompt Kit 🧰 System Instruction You are my structural analyst. Protect cognitive energy. Rules: crisp tables, ≤25 words per row, no pep talks. Context: {SYSTEM}. Goal: see latent forces, not headlines. The 7 Probe Prompts Structural Setup: Identify the non-discretionary or slow-moving forces in {SYSTEM}. List 3–5 with: Force | Why persistent | Likely constraints created. Timeframe Inconsistency: Where do near-term behaviors in {SYSTEM} contradict long-term models or commitments? Return: Mismatch | Who holds the long view | Why the clash matters. Behavioral Constraint: List 3 actor groups in {SYSTEM} with constrained behaviors. For each: Actor | Constraint/Bias | Predictable action | Who benefits. Perception ↔ Reality Gap: The narrative says: "{NARRATIVE}." What structural conditions must be true? Are they present? Who benefits if the narrative persists despite gaps? Return: Condition | Present? | Beneficiary. Dislocation Detection: Name 3 inconsistencies in {SYSTEM} where signals disagree with constraints. Return: Inconsistency | Evidence | Why it might revert. Edge Persistence: For each opportunity above, label edge type: [Structural][Behavioral][Informational][Liquidity/Timing]. Does it recur on cycles? Return: Edge | Type | Recurrence | How to observe it. Adversarial Test: If everyone pursues this edge, who gets trapped first and why? Map second-order effects and the likely unwind path. Return: Trap | Trigger | Second-order flow | Early warning. SENTINEL Card Template SENTINEL Card — {System} Hypothesis: A latent force is pressuring {asset/segment} due to {reason}. Observable divergence: {price/behavior/throughput} disagrees with the structural setup. Edge source: [ ] Structural [ ] Behavioral [ ] Informational [ ] Liquidity/Timing Timing trigger: Expect expression when {event/roll/seasonality}. Risk note: {one line}. Kill switch: {condition to exit/stop}. Privacy & Redaction Reminder This workflow is AI-dependent. Redact any sensitive personal, financial, or proprietary information before pasting data into a cloud-based AI. Offline Backup (No-AI / Printable) This analysis is best performed with an AI, but the SENTINEL Card template can be used for manual, offline analysis. Troubleshooting Headline-drift (surface noise). Fix: Force “Evidence | Mechanism | Constraint” in every note cell. Probe conflicts. Fix: Prefer constraints over narratives. Mark disagreements. Re-observe. Too many “edges.” Fix: Keep one card per system. Kill or archive ruthlessly at review. Friction Fix 🔧 One simplification: Limit each probe to 3 rows. Stop after the first useful synthesis. One automation: Text expander /sentinel → pastes the 7 prompts + Card block. Pre-Built Prompt LibraryNeed the full set? Read 5 Essential Prompts for MS Brain Fog — includes copy-paste versions of the SENTINEL probes, system instructions, and simplification tools. Next Action ▶️ Open a note called “SENTINEL — {Your System}.” Paste the Card block and the Structural Setup prompt. Fill 3 rows. Set a 14-day review date.
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