Use sharp days to build structure that serves you on foggy days. SENTINEL is a repeatable way to see the hidden scaffolding behind messy systems.

This guide provides a series of structured AI prompts to analyze complex systems.

Quick Path ⚡

  • Pick a system and fence it: one market, product, org, or workflow.
  • Run the 7 probes from the Prompt Kit below. Capture 1–3 bullets each.
  • Synthesize a card: hypothesis, divergence, edge type, trigger, test.
  • Adversarial test it once. Note how the edge collapses if it becomes consensus.
  • Schedule one observation you can verify in the next 7–14 days.

Phase 1 — Frame the System (5 min · Easy)

  • Boundary: Name what is in and out (actors, markets, time window).
  • Objective: Write one line: “I want to understand ___ to decide ___.”

Phase 2 — Run the Probes (12–20 min · Medium)

  • Go through the 7 “Probe Prompts” in the Prompt Kit below, one by one.

Phase 3 — Synthesize the Card (10 min · Medium)

  • Fill out the “SENTINEL Card Template” from the Prompt Kit using the output from the probes.

Phase 4 — Observe and Log (8–12 min over 1–2 weeks · Easy)

  • Pick 2–3 observables tied to your trigger. Make them falsifiable.
  • Create a tiny log: date, observation, implication, action/no-action.

The Prompt Kit 🧰

System Instruction

You are my structural analyst. Protect cognitive energy. Rules: crisp tables, ≤25 words per row, no pep talks. Context: {SYSTEM}. Goal: see latent forces, not headlines.

The 7 Probe Prompts

  1. Structural Setup: Identify the non-discretionary or slow-moving forces in {SYSTEM}. List 3–5 with: Force | Why persistent | Likely constraints created.
  2. Timeframe Inconsistency: Where do near-term behaviors in {SYSTEM} contradict long-term models or commitments? Return: Mismatch | Who holds the long view | Why the clash matters.
  3. Behavioral Constraint: List 3 actor groups in {SYSTEM} with constrained behaviors. For each: Actor | Constraint/Bias | Predictable action | Who benefits.
  4. Perception ↔ Reality Gap: The narrative says: "{NARRATIVE}." What structural conditions must be true? Are they present? Who benefits if the narrative persists despite gaps? Return: Condition | Present? | Beneficiary.
  5. Dislocation Detection: Name 3 inconsistencies in {SYSTEM} where signals disagree with constraints. Return: Inconsistency | Evidence | Why it might revert.
  6. Edge Persistence: For each opportunity above, label edge type: [Structural][Behavioral][Informational][Liquidity/Timing]. Does it recur on cycles? Return: Edge | Type | Recurrence | How to observe it.
  7. Adversarial Test: If everyone pursues this edge, who gets trapped first and why? Map second-order effects and the likely unwind path. Return: Trap | Trigger | Second-order flow | Early warning.

SENTINEL Card Template

SENTINEL Card — {System}

Hypothesis: A latent force is pressuring {asset/segment} due to {reason}.
Observable divergence: {price/behavior/throughput} disagrees with the structural setup.
Edge source: [ ] Structural  [ ] Behavioral  [ ] Informational  [ ] Liquidity/Timing
Timing trigger: Expect expression when {event/roll/seasonality}.
Risk note: {one line}.  Kill switch: {condition to exit/stop}.

Privacy & Redaction Reminder
This workflow is AI-dependent. Redact any sensitive personal, financial, or proprietary information before pasting data into a cloud-based AI.

Offline Backup (No-AI / Printable)
This analysis is best performed with an AI, but the SENTINEL Card template can be used for manual, offline analysis.

Troubleshooting
  1. Headline-drift (surface noise).
    • Fix: Force “Evidence | Mechanism | Constraint” in every note cell.
  2. Probe conflicts.
    • Fix: Prefer constraints over narratives. Mark disagreements. Re-observe.
  3. Too many “edges.”
    • Fix: Keep one card per system. Kill or archive ruthlessly at review.

Friction Fix 🔧

  • One simplification: Limit each probe to 3 rows. Stop after the first useful synthesis.
  • One automation: Text expander /sentinel → pastes the 7 prompts + Card block.

Pre-Built Prompt Library

Need the full set? Read 5 Essential Prompts for MS Brain Fog — includes copy-paste versions of the SENTINEL probes, system instructions, and simplification tools.

Next Action ▶️

Open a note called “SENTINEL — {Your System}.” Paste the Card block and the Structural Setup prompt. Fill 3 rows. Set a 14-day review date.

Accessibility and Care ♿

  • Works best on #sharpday. Use the Quick Path on #lowenergy.
  • Keep private data local; redact names/IDs/links before pasting into AI.
  • This is an analysis aid, not financial advice.

Support & Further Resources 🙌

  • For more on systems thinking, explore the work of Donella Meadows.